Как устроен мир на самом деле. Наше прошлое, настоящее и будущее глазами ученого - Вацлав Смил

class="p1">Olivier J. G. J. and Peters J. A. H. W. Trends in Global CO2 and Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2019.

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Конференция ООН по изменению климата 2015 г.: Conference of the Parties (COP), https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/supreme-bodies/conference-of-theparties-cop

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Stockton N. The Paris climate talks will emit 300 000 tons of CO2, by our math. Hope it’s worth it // Wired. 2015. November.

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ООН, Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 13 December 2015 (January 2016). https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf

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О перспективах кондиционирования воздухам см.: Energy Agency, The Future of Cooling. Paris: IEA, 2018.

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Olivier and Peters, Trends in Global CO2 and Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2019 Report.

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Mauritsen T. and Pincus R. Committed warming inferred from observations // Nature Climate Change. 2017. 7. P. 652–655.

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Zhou C. et al. Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect // Nature Climate Change. 2021. 11. P. 132–136.

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Межправительственная группа экспертов по изменению климата (IPCC), Global warming of 1,5 °C. Geneva: IPCC, 2018. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

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Grubler A. et al. A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1,5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies // Nature Energy 526 (2020). P. 515–527.

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Европейское агентство по окружающей среде. Size of the vehicle fleet in Europe (2019), https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/size-of-the-vehicle-fleet/size-ofthe-vehicle-fleet-10; for 1990, see https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/access-to-transport-services/vehicle-ownership-term-2001

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National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook, 1999–2019. http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Statisticaldata/AnnualData/

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SEI, IISD, ODI, E 3G, and UNEP, The Production Gap Report: 2020 Special Report, http://productiongap.org/2020report

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Larson E. et al. Net-Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University, 2020.

572

Helman C. Nimby nation: The high cost to America of saying no to everything // Forbes. 2015. August.

573

Палата представителей США. Resolution Recognizing the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal (2019). https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/109/text; Jacobson M. Z. et al. Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries // One Earth. 2019. 1. P. 449–463.

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Dickinson T. The Green New Deal is cheap, actually // Rolling Stone (April 6, 2020); Cassidy J. The good news about a Green New Deal // New Yorker. 2019. March 4; Chomsky N. and Pollin R. Climate Crisis and the Global Green New Deal: The Political Economy of Saving the Planet. N. Y.: Verso, 2020; Riin J. The Green New Deal: Why the Fossil Fuel Civilization Will Collapse by 2028, and the Bold Economic Plan to Save Life on Earth. N. Y.: St. Martin’s Press, 2019.

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Если вы хотите присоединиться к самой громкой ветви этого движения — чтобы «мобилизовать 3,5 % населения для изменения системы» (число активистов указано с точностью до десятых долей!), — зайдите на сайт: Extinction Rebellion. Welcome to the rebellion // https://rebellion.earth/the-truth/about-us/ Печатные инструкции см. в Extinction Rebellion, This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook. L.: Penguin, 2019.

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Brimblecombe P. et al. Acid Rain — Deposition to Recovery. Berlin: Springer, 2007.

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Abbasi S. A. and Abbasi T. Ozone Hole: Past, Present, Future. Berlin: Springer, 2017.

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Liu J. et al. China’s changing landscape during the 1990s: Large-scale land transformation estimated with satellite data // Geophysical Research Letters. 2005. 32/2. L02405.

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Burgess M. G. et al. IPCC baseline scenarios have overprojected CO2 emissions and economic growth // Environmental Research Letters. 2021. 16. 014016.

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Wood H. Green energy meets people power // The Economist (2020), https://worldin.economist.com/article/17505/edition2020get-ready-renewable-energy-revolution

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Hausfather Z. et al. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections // Geophysical Research Letters. 2019. 47. e2019GL085378.

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Smil. History and risk.

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Ежедневные и общие цифры по странам и во всем мире: Университет Джонса Хопкинса, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html или Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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Источники данных для этого и следующего абзаца. Объем ВВП: GDP per capita (current US$) (по состоянию на 2020 г.), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Статистические данные по Китаю: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook, 1999–2019. Эмиссия CO2: Olivier and Peters, Trends in Global CO2 and Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2019 Report.

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Согласно прогнозу ООН, в период с 2020 по 2050 г. население наименее развитых стран увеличится на 99,6 %, а в регионе южнее Сахары в целом — на 53 %: ООН, World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision. N. Y.: UN, 2019. О производстве электроэнергии в Африке см.: Alova G. et al. A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success // Nature Energy. 2021. 6/2.

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Pan Y. et al. Large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests // Science. 2011. 333. P. 988–993; Che C. et al. China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management // Nature Sustainability 2 (2019). P. 122–129. См. также: Wang J. et al. Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data // Nature 586/7831 (2020). P. 720–723.

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Dowell N. G. et al. Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world // Science. 2020. 368; R. J. Brienen W. et al. Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-os // Nature Communications 11. 2020. Article 4241.1234567890.

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Kauppi P. E. et al. Changing stock of biomass carbon